Vol 3, No 1 (2020) > Articles >

Port Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

Mustarakh Gelfi, Hendra Achiari



This study is about the port planning under deep uncertainty using the framework of Scenario Based-Adaptive Port Planning (SB-APP). The framework gives sequential workflow on designing the future masterplan of the port. The alternative layouts and adaptive actions are some important outcomes of the framework. The port has to realize that uncertainties persevere and are very likely to influence the decision making for future planning. Instead of ignoring uncertainties, the port needs to make contingency planning to deal with them. This study has benefits to make a robust terminal masterplan of the port.   

Keywords: Deep Uncertainty, Port Engineering, Port Management, Port Planning

Full PDF Download
Article Tools
   Citation Format


Arreco, P. (2015). Adaptive Port Masterplanning for Europoort, Port of Rotterdam. [Msc Thesis]. Delft University of Technology.

Heijden, K. van der. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lawrenz, F., Keiser, N., & Lavoie, B. (2003). Evaluative Site Visits: A Methodological Review. American Journal of Evaluation, 24(3), 341–352. https://doi.org/10.1177/109821400302400304

Ligteringen, H., & Velsink, H. (2012). Port and Terminals. Delft Academic Press (DAP).

Maier, H. R., Guillaume, J. H. A., van Delden, H., Riddel, G. A., Haasnoot, M., & Kwakkel, J. H. (2016). An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together. Environmental Modelling and Software, 81, 154–164. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014.

Ministry of the Transportation Republic of Indonesia. (2017). The Final Draft of Masterplan Tanjung Priok Port (PM 42).

Paulus, P. B., Baruah, J., & Kenworthy, J. B. (2018). Enhancing Collaborative Ideation in Organizations. Frontiers in Psychology, 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02024

Soloducho-Pelc, L. (2015). Planning Horizon as a Key Element of a Competitive Strategy. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(2), 161–166. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.7763/JOEBM.2015.V3.174

Taneja, P. (2013). The Flexible Port [Doctoral Thesis, Delft University of Technology]. https://repository.tudelft.nl/islandora/object/uuid%3Aa9f0c128-d4c3-41a2-8790-13aec89dca63

Taneja, P., Bijloo, E. M., Ruitenberg, J., & Schuylenburg, M. V. (2012). Planning for an uncertain future: A case study. International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 3(2), 181. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSSE.2012.048454

Walker, W. E., Rahman, S. A., & Cove, J. (2001). Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making. European Journal of Operational Research, 128, 282–289.

Copyright © CSID - JID